Only financial independence of Upper Nile will tame Egypt

Of all the Nile Basin countries, Egypt is the most advanced technologically, economically, and militarily. In fact on the last score, it is ranked Number 1 on the continent (Global Fire Power, 2013). Ethiopia comes a distant 2nd while Kenya is in 6th position.

 With a military reserve potential of 35 million people; a strongest motivation to fight for the only fresh water in the land; over 5,000 tanks, upward of 1,100 aircrafts and helicopters that can be launched from more than 80 airports, it is easy to understand the temptation for any Cairo government to consider military strikes against upstream water projects. The matter is not helped by the January 2013 Obama government $1b ‘special aid’ in form of F16 fighter jets. I understand this was part of a reward for the democratisation process following the ‘famous’ Arab spring!

But these are only short term apparent advantages. They can only be of some effect if war erupted against Ethiopia or North Sudan as single entities. Greater East Africa (essentially meaning all Blue and White Nile water sources) is the fastest developing region on the continent. It is huge in area and has the biggest young population living in cooler conditions. It is also the one region moving fastest towards economic and possible political integration. In those circumstances, Egypt’s military action may not yield strategic benefits to itself. The prayer for their military strategists might then be that current instability in the two Sudans and mistrusts among East African Community peoples continue unabated. But at one time in future, these will have to end or subside. Any military action before then will have left very bitter relationships and at that time, Egypt could face an irreversible decapitating revenge. That is how the mighty fall. From the Roman to the British empires; the Soviets (and now some want to add) to the US; from Napoleon to Hitler, etc. - they bat at their pole order and overate their successes, eventually falling with a thump.

Interestingly, there can be another self-debilitating feature in military strikes on projects right at the headwaters of the basin - in the Ethiopian highlands and on the East African high plateau. In these areas, it is possible to design dams and canals such that a poorly targeted strike permanently diverts the waters to other basins either to the Atlantic or to the Indian Oceans and the Red sea! Egypt’s ‘luck’ for now is that designs are being done and controlled by ‘foreign’ western engineering firms who would shy away from such schemes. This will not last forever. With resources currently being ‘discovered’ in the region (Oil, Gas, Iron, Uranium, Gold, etc.) and with factors already mentioned above, indigenes could take charge of the designs, constructions and financing by the second half of this century. This ought to concern the military enthusiasts in Cairo. In fact, a 2012 St. Thomas University (US) Law doctorate research by Abadir Ibrahim on the 2010 Nile waters agreement concludes that it is ‘financial independence’ of the upper riparian countries that could force Egypt to yield and sign the agreement. 

Is there an alternative to militarism? Not one, not two - but many. As table 1 in the previous article showed, the Sudans are the least populated and will remain that way for many decades to come. Yet they have the largest farm land on the continent: 55.8 Million hectares (Mn. ha) in the South and 25.2 Mn ha in the North (Baker, 1997; FAO, 2011). These 81 Mn ha are enough to feed the present one billion people on the continent! Figure 3 shows the land resource and its utilisation. Egypt could cooperate with the two countries – especially South Sudan - to grow food for its people and then develop transport along the Nile or jointly build a railway line linking these agricultural areas to Cairo.

On energy, the massive hydroelectric potential in Ethiopia could be tapped. Cooperation could make Egypt import from Addis as other options – especially nuclear for sea water desalination – are brought on line. But the Nile waters alone cannot provide the inhabitants with sufficient power to propel them into ‘medium to high’ income societies. The Congo basin has to supplement them. Power plants in the Eastern DRC could thus be linked to the East African power pool to meet most of the needs. This means Egypt needs to look at DRC and neighbouring countries as partners in a shared destiny for survival.

Egyptians – more than anyone else in the basin - need to move away from fossil fuels to reduce the basin’s carbon foot print. In 2011 for example, they produced 190.59 billion tonnes of CO2 (US Energy Information Administration, 2013). This was 16.5% of the total continent’s print and over 90% of the basin’s. Needless to say, this exacerbates the southward advance of the Sahara and threatens the water volumes they so cherish.

They have - fairly well developed: solar, water, construction, chemical, metallurgy and engineering skills. They could leverage these to participate massively in the upper riparian economies – which are now yearning to exploit their newly found resources. Like I keep teasing my South African hosts: Why should Tropical Africa be turning to China, India or the West for technology when they could provide some? It is not simply banking (Stanbic), retailing (Shoprite) and talking (MTN) that Africans need. We want real wealth creation in form of fresh clean water, energy, food, manufactured goods and products foremost. The counting, trading, etc. can follow!

‘Powerful’ Egypt budgets over $4b for its military every year as a way of keeping constantly alert on the waters. Rival Ethiopia budgets $400m. By cooperating with countries as outlined above, the former could slash the military spend by say half – and use the savings on propping Egyptian companies involved in the projects. That way, we could integrate our economies, appreciate each other better and perhaps move closer to our independence fathers’ dream of a United, federated Africa.

Kant is a Pan Africanist Solar Engineer, Member of ASHRAE and South Africa Society of Engineering Education (SASEE).